Pakistan must not lose to Bangladesh by 36 or more runs
By Mazher Arshad on September 24th, 2012

New Zealand from Group D have already advanced into Super Eight Round due to their superior Net Run Rate (+1.150) whereas Pakistan and Bangladesh are still not confirmed for the next round.

If Pakistan are to go in Super Eight, they must not lose to Bangladesh by margin of 36 or more runs when they play on Tuesday (September 25) in Pallekele. Or if Pakistan bat first then they must not let Bangladesh chase target before 16 overs. In other words, if Bangladesh win by at least 36 runs or chase the target in less than 16 overs, they will knock out Pakistan from the event and will go through along with New Zealand.

If the match between Pakistan and Bangladesh is washed-out (No Result) then Pakistan will qualify for Super Eight Round.

Pakistan’s current Run Rate: +0.650

Bangladesh’s current Run Rate: -2.950

Case I – Bangladesh score 150 and Pakistan are restricted to 114. Then the Net Run Rate will be as followed:

Teams Matches Points Net RR
New Zealand 2 2 +1.150
Bangladesh 2 2 -0.575
Pakistan 2 2 -0.575

In Case-I, Pakistan and Bangladesh will be having same Net Run Rate but Bangladesh will progress to next round on account of beating Pakistan in head-to-head match. Net Run Rate will not alter in a different scenario like: Bangladesh score 170 and Pakistan are restricted to 134 or Bangladesh score 190 and Pakistan are restricted to 154.

PS: If a team gets All Out before 20 overs, it will be considered they have played all their resources [20 overs].

Case II – Pakistan score 150 and Bangladesh chase the target of 151 in 15.5 overs. Then NRR will be as followed:

Teams Matches Points Net RR
New Zealand 2 2 +1.150
Bangladesh 2 2 -0.555
Pakistan 2 2 -0.695

In the Case II, permutations could be slightly different if target is above 150 or less than 150. But anything Bangladesh chasing in less than 16 overs will be threatening for Pakistan. For Example, if Pakistan score 130 then Bangladesh will still be needing to chase it down in 15.5 overs. A lesser target will have better chances for Bangladesh to go through.

Lowdowns from the previous events with respect to Pakistan.

It has not been a cakewalk for Pakistan to go in Super Eight Round in the previous two ICC World Twenty20s.

World Twenty20 2010: Pakistan and Australia had beaten Bangladesh in Group Stage, but Pakistan had to rely on game between Bangladesh and Australia. Bangladesh needed to chase target of Australia in around 19 overs to knock-out Pakistan. And the way game progressed, at one stage when Australia were reduced to 65-6 it looked like Pakistan would get knocked-out.

World Twenty20 2009: The Netherlands had beaten England and England had beaten Pakistan. So when Pakistan met Netherlands, only a win did not guarantee Pakistan a place in Super Eight, they had to win by margin of 25 Runs against Netherlands to go through. For good measures, Pakistan won it by 82 Runs.

World Twenty20 2007: Pakistan had beaten Scotland, and match of India vs Scotland was washed-out. Not a threat for Pakistan but had Pakistan chased India’s target of 142 in less than 14 overs then India would have been knocked-out.

Mazher Arshad is a freelance Cricket writer, he tweets here.

13 Responses to “Pakistan must not lose to Bangladesh by 36 or more runs”

  1. Rizwan Khan says:

    Inshallah ! Pakistan will beat Bangladesh & will qualify :) ))

  2. Imran Memon says:

    Pakistan will rock tommorrow INshaAllah

  3. Imran Hunzai says:

    That’s really interesting! Tomorrows match will have pressure on both teams. Gonna be do or die situation.

    Good write :)

  4. Haris says:

    If pakistan got out on 100 or below
    Bangladesh have to chase it out before 15 overs

    and if pakistan score 200,bangladesh have to chase it before 17 overs.

    So it depends on score if Pak bat firsr

  5. Faizan Saleem says:

    Quite interesting calculation!

  6. Naqash says:

    In case it rains… Than what happned…??

  7. infissi roma says:

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  8. Ali says:

    Insh’Allah pak jeete ga

  9. Lashon says:

    Regards for helping out, excellent info .

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